December 28, 2005 3 Comments
The Toronto Blue Jays traded for Troy Glaus yesterday, sending Orlando Hudson, Miguel Batista, and Sergio Santos to the Arizona Diamondbacks. It seems to me that this is a good deal for both teams.
Glaus is a great offensive player. He created 25 runs above average last season, according to Lee Sinnis. I would project him at +13 using a 5/4/3/2 weighting for the last three seasons and the league average (which, of course, is equal to 0). Defensively, I’d project him at just about average. He was +8 RAA according to Range last season, and -2 in limited playing time in 2004. From 2000 tto 2003, he was somewhat below average according to UZR, -7 runs per 162 games. For simplicity’s sake, I’ll call Glaus a -3 defender, and project him to be +10 runs above average overall.
Hudson isn’t much offensively. Using the method I used with Glaus, I’d project him to be -6 RAA next season. Defensively, he’s awesome. He was +14 RAA last season according to Range, and +27 in 2004. Using a 4/2/3 weighting for 2005/2004/Average, I’ll project him to be +12 RAA in 2006, or +6 RAA overall.
Batista is a pretty solid, somewhat above-average pitcher. Using a 3/2/1/2 weighting for the last three seasons and the league average, I’d put him at +3 runs above average. I know I’m not adjusting for age effects here, but let’s ignore them for now. I don’t know much about Santos, so I won’t comment but he seems like a throwaway prospect based on his minor league numbers.
So basically, the Blue Jays don’t get much if Glaus indeed misses time due to injury. But if he plays about 150 games, the Jays probably get about 10 extra runs in 2006, which is good for an extra win. Based on their offseason moves, the Jays should win about five games more than they did in 2005. Based on their second-order W/L record in 2005, I’d project them to win 84 games, maybe 85 with Roy Halladay coming back for, hopefully, a full season. With a little luck, the Jays could contend in 2006.