August 31, 2005 2 Comments
This is my post for the next two days, because I’ll be in an airplane tomorrow.
Anyways, I noticed today that while Derrek Lee was getting all the Triple Crown hype, the guy who really has a chance to get it is no one other than Alex Rodriguez. Let’s take a look at his chances in each category:
BA – .320 (3nd) A-Rod is a measly .004 points behind Johnny Damon in the batting average standings. According to PrOPS, Damon’s predicted BA is .317, Michael Young’s (he’s 2nd in BA) is .306, and A-Rod’s is .283. Which means that if each regresses to his expected performance, you would expect the standings to stay the way they are, or so. A-Rod doesn’t seem to have a great chance of winning the batting title, however, the one thing in his favor is that his career BA (.307) is much higher than Damon’s (.290) or Young’s (.294).
HR – 40 (1st) Rodriguez has a five home run lead over David Ortiz, and I doubt that he relinquishes it. Even last year — in an off-season for him — Rodriguez finished 6th in the AL in home runs.
RBI – 105 (4th) Even though he trails David Ortiz by 12 in this category, Rodriguez does have some hope left. Based on his singles, doubles, triples, and home runs, A-Rod would be expected to have 112 RBI, 6 more than Ortiz would be expected to have. If Ortiz’s luck runs out and Rodriguez gets a little more than his share, he could become the first Triple Crown winner in the AL since Carl Yaztremski in 1967.
While A-Rod’s at a Triple Crown chances seem to be slim (I’d put him at 10:1 odds), but you never know. Certain indicators point towards A-Rod catching up in the two categories he trails in, and if he gets a little lucky, well, the rest will certainly be history.