Run expectancy by count

I don’t want to call these novelties – I can think of some potential uses for them – but for right now I’m simply presenting them as curiosities.

What are they? Run expectancy charts, grouped by balls and strikes. That’s it. I used 1994-2007, Retrosheet data. To be clear, this is based upon count at the end of the plate appearance – I simply grouped everything by the balls and strikes at the end of the plate appearance. First, the simpler chart:

BALLS
STRIKES
RUNS
0
0
0.595
0
1
0.556
0
2
0.390
1
0
0.592
1
1
0.554
1
2
0.397
2
0
0.614
2
1
0.560
2
2
0.405
3
0
0.842
3
1
0.713
3
2
0.560

I think there may be a modest sampling issue or so there – what jumps out at me is the runs with one ball being lower than the runs with no balls. Other than that it seems to present about what we’d expect.

The longer form of the table – which includes the base/out state in addition to the balls and strikes – is too large to fit here, and is available through EditGrid.

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2 Responses to Run expectancy by count

  1. tangotiger says:

    You absolutely and definitely need the “pass through” count if you want to have much bigger use for this. You can search my blog. Look for Tippett and “pass through”.

  2. Colin Wyers says:

    Here’s the article I think Tom is talking about. I’ll have to do some more reading on this. (I have a sinking feeling that the answer involves using regular expressions.)

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