The "toughest out" study, redux

I never expected the “toughest out” study to be much of anything.

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7 Responses to The "toughest out" study, redux

  1. tangotiger says:

    Cool stuff. Can you list the results in a table: out/actual/expected/diff/SD
    Assuming about 7000 PA per out-slot, the random diff should be .0057. (SD above is diff/.0057). For the 17th out, you are reporting a diff of .017, meaning 3.0 SD from the mean. It’s possible this is evidence of a tiring pitcher (17th out would mean around the 26th batter, which is right around when pitchers are pulled).
    When I looked at it by PA (not out), there was a definite tiring pattern (the OBP goes up, the more batters a pitcher faces). It’s in The Book if you want to reference it.
    Anyway, the 17 point difference is more like a 9 point difference after reflecting the tiring aspect, turning the 3 SD into 1.5 SD.
    You’ll probably find that after you apply a “tiring/starter” effect, that the differences are random, as you’ve suspected.

  2. tangotiger says:

    I should have added that if you take the SD of the (adjusted) SD, that you’ll probably get something very close to 1.00 (i.e., random).

  3. Pizza Cutter says:

    Hopefully this works formatting-wise…
    Out Actual Expected Diff
    17.00 .3614 .3441 .0173
    9.00 .3608 .3484 .0125
    12.00 .3439 .3327 .0111
    14.00 .3450 .3363 .0087
    21.00 .3506 .3425 .0081
    10.00 .3555 .3493 .0063
    18.00 .3461 .3412 .0049
    8.00 .3434 .3391 .0044
    11.00 .3441 .3403 .0038
    13.00 .3357 .3343 .0013
    16.00 .3453 .3440 .0013
    20.00 .3408 .3400 .0008
    27.00 .3282 .3279 .0003
    4.00 .3449 .3449 .0001
    23.00 .3416 .3417 -.0001
    1.00 .3551 .3556 -.0004
    6.00 .3192 .3207 -.0015
    15.00 .3364 .3380 -.0016
    22.00 .3402 .3429 -.0026
    24.00 .3363 .3408 -.0046
    2.00 .3554 .3630 -.0076
    26.00 .3214 .3304 -.0090
    19.00 .3331 .3426 -.0094
    7.00 .3166 .3262 -.0097
    5.00 .3174 .3291 -.0117
    3.00 .3518 .3639 -.0120
    25.00 .3071 .3325 -.0254

  4. gdog says:

    interesting…let’s sort that again
    Out Actual Expected Diff
    1.00 .3551 .3556 -.0004
    2.00 .3554 .3630 -.0076
    3.00 .3518 .3639 -.0120
    4.00 .3449 .3449 .0001
    5.00 .3174 .3291 -.0117
    6.00 .3192 .3207 -.0015
    7.00 .3166 .3262 -.0097
    8.00 .3434 .3391 .0044
    9.00 .3608 .3484 .0125
    10.00 .3555 .3493 .0063
    11.00 .3441 .3403 .0038
    12.00 .3439 .3327 .0111
    13.00 .3357 .3343 .0013
    14.00 .3450 .3363 .0087
    15.00 .3364 .3380 -.0016
    16.00 .3453 .3440 .0013
    17.00 .3614 .3441 .0173
    18.00 .3461 .3412 .0049
    19.00 .3331 .3426 -.0094
    20.00 .3408 .3400 .0008
    21.00 .3506 .3425 .0081
    22.00 .3402 .3429 -.0026
    23.00 .3416 .3417 -.0001
    24.00 .3363 .3408 -.0046
    25.00 .3071 .3325 -.0254
    26.00 .3214 .3304 -.0090
    27.00 .3282 .3279 .0003

  5. tangotiger says:

    If I take the standard deviation of the SD, I get 1.59 which is very significant. If I only do it to the first 18 outs (6 innings, basically the starter), I get an SD of 1.45.
    If I stick with the first 18 outs, and adjust the first 7 outs diff upward by 6 OBP points, and the other 11 outs down by 6 OBP points (as a way to handle the tiring pitcher and/or advantage of batter in facing same pitcher multiple times), the SD is 0.95. That is, random.
    Trying to do the same with the final 9 outs, and it becomes readily apparent that the easiest out, more than can be explained by chance, is the 25th out, as pizza has pointed out. The reason here is likely that it’s the first out of the 9th inning, and you have a “fresh” pitcher.
    Otherwise, all other outs are within the realm of chance.

  6. Steve Schramm says:

    but, but, but, hang on here. if you’ve eliminated all the home team come from behind wins, does that affect the probabilities on outs 25, 26 & 27 in a statistically significant way?? Aren’t there a bunch of ABs for those outs that just got thrown out of the study? Or is it not enough to matter? Seems like I’m always seeing this on SportsCenter, but then again, it’s not much fun seeing the home team go down 1-2-3 9th (unless it’s your team as visitors, of course).

  7. Pizza Cutter says:

    A small mis-understanding. I did an earlier version of the study in which I had eliminated all come-from-behind wins. This post addressed that problem (and others) from the initial study.

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