How much is Griffey worth?

Ken Griffey Jr. is being pretty adamant that he will not be traded. It seems that the White Sox badly want Griffey which begs the question (at least to me): how much is Griffey worth? Let’s take a look:
Hitting-wise, Griffey is having a great year, and is 33.5 runs above average. Projected over a full season, that’s roughly 41.5 runs.
Defensively, he stinks, and is at -17 runs. Projected over a full season, he should have -21 runs on defense.
Which means that overall, Griffey should be worth +24.5 runs above average this year. Considering that each marginal win is worth about $2 million, and that the average starter makes about $4 million, Griffey will be worth about $9 million this year, not that far off his $12.5 million contract. But Griffey’s contract will only grow in amount the next few years, while his value declines (think Bernie Williams). So it seems to me that any team trading for him, would be inasane to pick up more than half his salary the rest of the way, no matter how much it might help in the short term.


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