The Deal With Derby Participants

In 2005, Bobby Abreu of the Phillies put on a showcase at the Home Run Derby, breaking the single-round record en route to a derby victory.  All told, Abreu swatted 41 home runs into the Detroit stands that night.  Since that fateful day, three and a half years ago, Abreu has hit just 47 home runs total.  From 1999-2004, he averaged 24.3 HR/yr; combining the second half of 2005 with the first half of 2008, and adding it to 2006-07, Abreu has averaged just 16 HR/yr since.  While several factors could account for this drop, such as age, a decline in bat speed, more grounders, to name a few, many fans and analysts alike attributed his second half dropoff to a “tired swing” due to the derby.
This story is not alone, either.  Juan Rodriguez, in this Florida Sun-Sentinel article, discusses the highly popular idea that home run derby participants will experience a second-half dropoff.  According to his research, half of those studied experienced drops in their home run rates while the other half stayed stagnant or increased their rate.  Still, whether in jest or born out of complete concern, the idea of a derby-driven dropoff is a very popular one.
There have not been many studies on the subject either, meaning nothing has necessarily debunked the myth or proven it to be true.  I have seen a couple of studies but they, just as I did in an initial look at this very subject, fell into the same trap.  By straight up comparing first half to second half, our results are not truly expressing what we intend.  The problem stems from a selection bias in that those named to the all-star team or home run derby are likely having big first-halves.  Overachieving first-halves, that is, meaning they are naturally due for a second half regression whether they participate in the derby or not.
To properly conduct this study, by using the true talent level, we need to compare the actual second half production to the projected production based on the previous three years and the big first half of the year in question.  This way, the real test will be whether or not players fall short of their projection in the second half.  If so, then yes, the idea of a decline following the derby does carry some weight.  If not, and/or the results are ambiguous, then it is nothing more than a theory as their would be nothing to suggest a decline. 
Those supporting the idea could play the “tired swing” or “uppercut mentality” cards but I say it’s largely poppycock.  I am, however, willing to be openly swayed by the numbers should they come to suggest such a result.  My first step was compiling a list of all derby participants from 2000-2007, then entering their actual second half performance into a spreadsheet.  Using the in-season Marcel projector, I then manually entered the pertinent numbers into the required fields, which took forever (Hardball Times, you need to go prior to 2004!) but eventually offered the projections for the second halves in each of those years for each of those players. 
Next, I tested the strength of the numbers by running a simple correlation.  As you will see below, everything other than batting average correlated quite strongly to each other between the halves:

• AB/HR: .49
• BA: .28
• OBP: .65
• SLG: .58
• OPS: .61

Testing the correlations or running a linear regression could help in this study but I decided to go with a paired samples t-test instead.  A t-test compares the means between two sets of data and lets us know if the differences between the means are statistically significant or not.  Keep in mind the sample size here is 64 players so these results may not be anything definitive, but I’m really just testing to see if the idea of a decline should be given any credence, whether or not it shows up in any way in the numbers. 
Anyways, back to t-tests: In them, a p-value of .05 or less suggests that the means are, in fact, statistically different.  Higher than that and the means are not really that different regardless of whether or not one appears higher or lower than another.  Since we are testing for a decline here, the expectation is that the mean of the projected statistics will exceed the mean of actual statistics.  After running the t-test I was surprised to find that all five measured stats (AB/HR, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS) had a p-value below .05; in fact they were all below .03, with batting average being the least significant.  Since the means are all significantly different from a statistics standpoint, here are the comparisons:

• Projected AB/HR: 17.8
• Actual AB/HR: 19.9

• Projected BA: .293
• Actual BA: .299

• Projected OBP: .382
• Actual OBP: .397

• Projected SLG: .546
• Actual SLG: .563

• Projected OPS: .928
• Actual OPS: .961

According to these results, the derby participants from 2000-2007 have actually outdone their projections in the slash line department as well as in OPS.  This offers, at least amongst these numbers, that these players are not declining in overall production in the second half relative to what they were expected to do.  In fact, it might even point in the opposite direction, that the derby was merely a stepping stone towards a great year for the players in question.  By outdoing the second half projections and beating the expected regression, the slash line and OPS do not suggest decline in the least.  We may be picking nits over whether it suggests improvement, but definitely not decline.
However, and it’s a big however, the AB/HR did get worse in the actual data.  On average, the projected player would hit a home run once every 17.8 at-bats, while the actual players did so once every twenty or so at-bats.  Essentially, the overall production of these players did not decline but their rate of home runs did.  From a psychological standpoint, Pizza Cutter noted that perhaps pitchers will bear down more in the second half against these all stars and derby participants to avoid surrendering home runs from them, even though pitchers tend to give up more flyballs in the second half.
Overall, I would like to extend this into a larger study unless someone beats me to the punch, to see if the results hold up when we add say 12-15 years of derby data to the fold.  Based on this study, however, it does appear that players will experience a drop in their home run rates while simultaneously beating their projections in BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS.  The key to remember is that we are comparing projected second halves to actual, not a straight up comparison between both halves for each players; that would produce different results, and wouldn’t be a fair test for decline.
Taking this to the next level would involve using a larger sample of derby participants and conducting another t-test to compare the means in several areas.  Additionally, we would want an equal sample of non-derby participants with similar numbers in perhaps the AB/HR area.  We would conduct the same t-test for them and see if the derby actually has an effect; if it does, then we would see the same lower AB/HR rates for derby guys but different results for the non-derby guys.  They would be our control group.  For now though, it’s interesting to see that the derby participants only decline in that area.  Essentially, we cannot automatically assume that the derby caused the ab/hr decline until we see them stacked alongside similar players not in the derby as a control.

This Week in News and Sabermetrics: 4/6-4/12

Welcome to the first edition of TWINS – This Week in News and Sabermetrics.  This will be a weekly article recapping the goings on in the baseball world, ranging anywhere from top games of the week or oddest stats to frontrunners for awards based on my formulas and links to great articles.  Expect one of these bad boys every Saturday.  If anybody has suggestions for additions they would like to see feel free to post them in the comments.  Without further delay:
Interesting Bits of Tid
Well, the Tigers finally won a game after starting the season 0-7 and worrying the moustache off of Jim Leyland (not in a literal sense).  Unfortunately, any hope of a winning streak was put to rest when Tim Wakefield took the mound the next night.  Two weeks into the season the team expected to score 1,000 runs in 162 games (6.17/gm for anyone wondering) has scored 28 runs in 9 games (not 6.17/gm for anyone wondering).  To show how bad things have been Placido Polanco even made errors in consecutive nights.
Staying in the AL, Travis Buck of the Athletics started the season by going 0-21, with 9 strikeouts, and a .043 OPS… out of the leadoff spot.  He was about as effective as Travis Buckley–the other guy that appears when you type “Travis Buck” into Baseball Reference–but then remembered how to hit.  In his next three games Buck went 7-16, with 6 doubles, 4 RBIs, and a 1.284 OPS.
MVP Predictor
I came up with a pretty simple formula to see who would win the MVP should the season end at any given point.  The formula is: (OPS+ / 2) + VORP + VB.
OPS+ compares production to the rest of the league; VORP offers how important a player proved to be in accounting for runs than a replacement level player; VB is a Victory Bonus, just like in the James Cy Young Predictor, that awards points to a division leader.  In this case, +10 for first place and +6 for second place.  It’s simple but effective in determining how important a player statistically performed.  It does not take into account the more human factors of the game but the MVP is usually awarded to the best hitter on the best team; this formula measures that. 
I will be revising this throughout the season I am sure but for now it will work fine.  Here are the top five in the NL:

1. Kendall, MIL, 135.7
2. Ramirez, FLA, 130.9
3. Burrell, Phi, 123.5
4. Pujols, StL, 120.9
5. Upton, Ari, 107.2

And the AL:

1. Pierzynski, CHW, 131.4
2. Scott, BAL, 126.7
3. Crede, CHW, 123.2
4. Dye, CHW, 120.0
5. Drew, BOS, 114.8

Cy Young Predictor
In The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers Bill James presented a formula that could, with pretty good accuracy, predict the eventual Cy Young Award.  For a description of the formula, click here.  Though I altered his formula in previous articles to account for old-time players, his works great here.  Here are the top five in the NL:

1. Jake Peavy, SD, 23.3
2. Brandon Webb, ARI, 19.6
3. Micah Owings, ARI, 18.8
4. Ben Sheets, MIL, 18.6
5. Jason Isringhausen, StL, 18.4

And the AL:

1. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS, 23.2
2. Zach Greinke, KC, 22.2
3. Edwin Jackson, TB, 22.0
4. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY, 20.3
5. Brian Bannister, KC, 19.9

Beane Count
Over at ESPN.com Rob Neyer created a really cool stat I had never heard of until earlier this month, titled Beane Count.  The stat measures all of the contributions Athletics GM Billy Beane looks for in players and evaluates the teams that best fit his desires.  The total is found by adding the team rank in home runs hit, walks, home runs allowed, and walks allowed.  Interestingly enough, as of right now, both the Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs lead their respective leagues–and by significant margins.
Cain Watch
Many readers here should know that I have some crazy manlove for Matt Cain, despite having no allegiances to the Giants, and really cannot stand how unlucky he gets on the mound.  In 2007 he went 7-16, though my Adjusted W-L system had him pegged at 16-7; my SP Effectiveness System even scored him a +50, just meeting the cutoff for a #1 pitcher.  Each week I will look at his starts and see if the unlucky trend continues.

• #1, 4/1/08, 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, ND.  Records an AQND because it was an Adjusted Quality Start.  Game Score of 64.  From what I saw and heard he was squeezed and really should have only walked two batters.
• #2, 4/7/08, 4.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 5 K. Loss.  Does not record an AQS and legitimately deserved to lose.  Unlike his first start he was not terribly squeezed and this was not a good start by any means.

Game Scores of the Week
Bill James created the Game Score statistic to measure the exact quality of a pitched game.  Info on the easy to calculate figure can be found here.  For the record, a GSC of 50 or higher is good.  Below are the top three game scores of the week of 4/6-4/12.

• Ben Sheets, April 6th: 9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – 85 GSC
• Edwin Jackson, April 10th: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – 80 GSC
• Wandy Rodriguez, April 7th: 7.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – 78 GSC

Weekly Oddibe Award
The Oddibe Awards are given to the hitter with the slash stats (BA/OBP/SLG) closest to the league average and are named after Oddibe McDowell, whom RJ Anderson of Beyond the Box Score determined to have the career slash line closest to the league average from 1960-2006.  As of this week the league average slash line is .257/.327/.403.  Should the season for some odd reason end today, the 2008 Oddibe Award recipient would be – Orlando Hudson, Ari: .270/.325/.405.
If the Season Ended Today
Speaking of whether or not the season ended today I think it will be interesting to look at the playoff matchups each week if it did end.  This way we can see which teams were in it all year as opposed to burning out or surging in. Note – this was done at 11:16 PM EST, so the As had played while the Angels were still playing.

• Baltimore Orioles (AL East) vs. Chicago White Sox (Wild Card)
• Kansas City Royals (AL Central) vs. Oakland Athletics (AL West)
• Arizona DBacks (NL West) vs. Winner of Tiebreaking Game between CHC/MIL
• Florida Marlins (NL East) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (NL Central)

In Case You Missed It
Here are some great sabermetrics articles from this past week:

• Geoff Young looks at whether or not Trevor Hoffman struggles during non-save situations.
• While I measure the most average hitters via The Oddibe Award, Steve Treder is in the midst of a series of articles examining the worst hitters at each lineup spot.  Earlier this week he did the #2 batter.
• Cyril Morong chimes in with his thoughts on whether or not David Ortiz is a clutch hitter.
• Jeff Sackmann takes a well-thought out look at whether or not the Triple A Rangers are better than the Major League SF Giants.
• Marc Hulet examines the pretty impressive 2001 Draft Class.

The Oceanic Six

Yes, I’m a LOST fanatic and, depending when this article is read, I cannot wait for/really enjoyed this week’s episode.  For those unaware, the show centers around a group of plane crash survivors that are stranded on an island with no outside communication.  Hell, there’s even some baseball involved as two episoded eluded to, or showed video of, the 2004 Red Sox World Series title.
With the plot of the show in mind, I decided to find some of the best pitched seasons in the Wild Card era (1995-now) that have either been forgotten, or never realized to have been so good thanks to poor evaluative statistical barometers.  My method involved parsing the Baseball-Reference Play Index in order to find seasons that I deemed forgotten while also meeting this criteria:

1. Minimum of 25 GS
2. ERA+ over 120
3. OPS+ under 85
4. Game Score average of at least 54
5. Nothing after 2003 qualifies as it was too recent

Only ten seasons from 1995-2002 met this, and my mental “forgotten-ness” criteria, and I narrowed it down into a group of six.  The other four will be Honorable Mentions at the end.  These are in order by their Game Score average but nothing else; I don’t necessarily consider any of these to be more forgotten than the rest.
JUAN GUZMAN, 1996, TOR:  27 GS, 11-8, 2.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 6.95 IP/gm
Guzman began a series of career-shortening injuries at the end of the 1996 season and, thanks in large part to teammate Pat Hentgen’s 1996 Cy Young Award, Guzman’s campaign has largely been forgotten as anything memorable or noteworthy from that season.  In 27 starts, Guzman had a GSC (Game Score Average) of 60, but only posted an 11-8 record.  The Adjusted W-L method says he pitched well enough to go 13-6.  He held opponents to an incredible OPS+ of 65 while posting a tremendous 171 ERA+.  He also earned a +56 in the SP Effectiveness System, deeming him a true #1 in that season.
JUSTIN THOMPSON, 1997, DET: 32 GS, 15-11, 3.02 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.98 IP/gm
Once a promising up-and-comer in the Tigers organization, Thompson’s severe inactivity from the end of 1999 until his two-game stint in 2005 rendered him one of the forgotten.  His 1997 campaign, however, earned him an All-Star spot, and saw him finish in the AL top ten in ERA, ERA+, GS, IP, CG, IP/GM, WHIP, and H/9.  In those 32 starts, his GSC was 58, ERA+ was 151, and OPS+ was 68.  His 15-11 record translates to an Adjusted W-L of 21-5, as in the decisions he received, he recorded an AQS 21 out of 26.  His SP Effectiveness was a tremendous +76.
ISMAEL VALDEZ, 1997, LAD: 30 GS, 10-11, 2.65 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.57 IP/gm
The 2000-2005 seasons of Ismael Valdez were so average or poor that many people forget how solid his 1995-1999 seasons were.  During those first five years, he averaged just about 200 innings per season, had a max ERA of 3.98, max WHIP of 1.36, and posted K:BB ratios over 2.00 four out of five times, just missing it for the fifth time.  Then, it all seemingly went downhill.  His innings and strikeouts lowered while his walks and hits trended upwards.  His 1997 season, however, was a bright spot that little light gets shone upon.  In that season, Valdez’s GSC was 58, ERA+ was 146, and OPS+ 76.  His 10-11 record translates to a 13-8 Adjusted W-L.  Though that is not much of a difference, he was extremely unlucky in the sense that, in eight of his nine no-decisions, he went 6+ innings and gave up no more than 2 ER.  His Net Luck Rating (NLR) was -6.5 in 1997 which is rather high; the highest since 2000 belongs to, guess who, 2007 Matt Cain, at -12.5. 
DUSTIN HERMANSON, 1998, MON: 32 G (30 GS), 14-11, 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
The most recent sight of Hermanson Munster saw him as the-closer-that-lost-his-job-to-Bobby-Jenks on the 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox.  Prior to his relief pitching years, though, Hermanson actually came up in the bigs as a starter, averaging 31 GS/yr from 1997-2001.  Though his last three years as a starter were nothing to write home about, his 1998 season featured some pretty solid, yet oft-forgotten, numbers.  Dustin made 30 starts, averaged 6.13 IP/gm, while posting a K:BB of 2.75 (154 K to 56 BB).  His ERA+ was 134 while his OPS+ came in at 78.  His GSC during the season was 56.  The 14-11 record becomes a 15-10 in the Adjusted W-L system and there were an additional three games wherein Hermanson pitched extremely well but failed to record a decision.
FRANCISCO CORDOVA, 1998, PIT: 33 GS, 13-14, 3.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.68 IP/gm
Francisco Cordova’s brief major league career reads like some sort of statistical haiku, wherein his numbers increase to the maximum and then decrease back to where they originated.  Seriously, look at his Baseball-Reference page.  It’s quite odd as just about every statistic does this.  During his 1998 campaign, his 132 ERA+ and 82 OPS+ only resulted in a 13-14 record.  Of course, this was most likely a direct result of playing for the Pirates.  His Adjusted W-L would have been 18-9.  That’s a pretty significant difference.  In a 9-game stretch from 4/23 to 6/6, Cordova went 64.2 IP, 55 H, 14 ER, 8 BB, 41 K, 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, Opp. OPS of .599, and a GSC of 62.  Some of these were cancelled out by a few <5 IP starts and two consecutive 6 ER surrendered performances on 7/31 and 8/5, but Cordova’s season really could have resulted in serious Cy Young Award consideration had he been on a team with good run support.
JOEY HAMILTON, 1995, SD: 30 GS, 6-9, 3.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6.78 IP/gm
Hamilton’s 1995 season proved to be a forgotten one simply due to its statistical oddities.  The year prior, his rookie, season, he received 15 decisions in 16 starts; a year later he received 15 decisions in 30 starts.  How does this happen?  Not because he didn’t pitch late into games; as mentioned above, he averaged 6.78 IP/gm and only went under 6 IP six times out of thirty starts.  There were nine games in which he went 6+ IP and gave up 3 or less ER, or 7.2+ IP with 4 or less ER (AQS requirements) wherein he received a no-decision.  Of his 15 decisions, though, his Adjusted W-L should have been 9-6.  Even if he went 5-4 in the nine no-decisions he should have won, we would have had a 14-10 record to work with; 15 decisions in 30 starts is just ridiculous.  What’s even more ridiculous is Odalis Perez’s 13 decisions in 31 starts in 2004.  Back to Hamilton.  His GSC was 54, and he had an ERA+ of 132 with an OPS+ of 80.  Greg Maddux was literally in a league of his own in 1995, but Hamilton’s GSC, ERA+ and OPS+ were extremely comparable when stacked up next to Pete Schourek, Tom Glavine, Hideo Nomo, and Ramon Martinez, all four of whom received Cy Young Award votes.
HONORABLE MENTION
These were the seasons that qualified for inclusion but just missed the cut, not necessarily due to quality but due to “forgotten-ness”:

1. Rick Ankiel, 2000, StL: 31 GS, 11-7, 134 ERA+, 76 OPS+, 55 GSC
2. Ken Hill, 1996, Tex: 35 GS, 16-10, 145 ERA+, 76 OPS+, 53 GSC
3. Jaime Navarro, 1995, CHC: 29 GS, 13-6, 125 ERA+, 82 OPS+, 55 GSC
4. Todd Ritchie, 1999, Pit: 26 GS, 15-9, 132 ERA+, 86 OPS+, 53 GSC

If anybody has more seasons they feel qualify for inclusion, definitely post them in the comments section.  Let’s have some fun with this.

The Santana Hypocrisy

Before getting into the article I wanted to mention that my personal website, www.ericjseidman.com is now back up and running. The site holds information for all of my endeavors, including sabermetrics, magic, and my professional screenwriting.
DISCLAIMER: This will not truly be a statistical piece but rather more along the lines of psychology and opinion. And yes – the title sounds like a Matt Damon movie title.
I was watching Freaks and Geeks the other day and an incident in the episode sparked a metaphor in my mind. In the show, Sam really liked Cindy Sanders, a girl who was dating a jock and only wanted to be his friend. At dinner Sam told his mother about Cindy’s lack of interest. His mother, trying to keep her son optimistic, told him she was making a mistake/dumb decision and that it would be “her loss.”
I wondered, though, would Sam’s mother have been as “down” on Cindy if Sam came home with news that Cindy did like him?
As in, is it okay to “diss” or find flaws in something not yours if you would be ecstatic if said thing was yours?
Even though I would love to continue talking about one of my favorite television shows the purpose of this post is to direct the above question towards the recent trade of Johan Santana.
MY REACTION
Unequivocally, I am a die-hard Phillies fan. Though I seem to adopting the Rays as a second team the Phillies are the sole owners of the baseball-area in my heart. Even though they are my favorite team, and the Mets are in their division, I am really excited about the Johan trade.
Yes, a Phillies fan excited that the Mets improved their team.
Johan has been a favorite of mine since 2002 when, via the MLB digital cable package, I watched him routinely make relief appearances. I always noted how “cool” or “funky” his windup and delivery were and loved watching him on the mound. He has also been the only non-Greg Maddux player that I like to exclusively follow.
Now he is in the same division as the team I root for and I cannot wait to see these games. I cannot wait to see a Hamels/Santana battle of the changeups, or Santana facing off against Jimmy Rollins in the 8th inning of a (hopefully) meaningful September game. I am greatly anticipating a Santana/Peavy Sunday Night Baseball matchup or even just simply watching the guy bat!
Unfortunately, I am mostly alone in my thoughts when it comes to non-NYM NL East fans. You see, a stark contrast exists between the definitions of “die-hard fans” and that is the main reason I am mostly alone in my thoughts. There are fans whose personal lives are so effected by sports that it borders on sick obsession, and there are fans like me, fans who give so much of their heart and mind to the game but can continue their regular lives when the game ends.
I am a die-hard Phillies fan but, when the Mets landed Johan, I did not cry, pop pills, seek therapy, or curse on message boards. I grinned. I grinned as if to say – “Oh, you rascal Metropolitans!” I grinned because this is going to be a very exciting season.
In an initial reactive conversation with my brother Corey, though, he caught me doing the same thing I had been complaining about to him – falling into The Santana Hypocrisy.
THE HYPOCRISY ITSELF
I made a comment to him along the lines of – “I mean, honestly, how many games is he going to personally improve?”
Corey called me on it and I admitted fault. After all, this is such an easy hypocrisy to fall victim to but it becomes a problem when fans become so entrenched in it that they lose touch with reality.
DISCLAIMER 2: This is not means to bash any fan of any team, so Mets, Phillies, Braves, and Twins fans, please do not scream down my throat. I am merely investigating the human nature and seemingly programmed response that falls into this hypocrisy.
I have read a plethora of reactions on this trade and, while most are valid or provide some semblance of a reasonal response, some are ridiculous in their hypocritical nature. The hypocrisy does not stem from the reactions, themselves, but rather the fact that these reactions would be completely reversed if the circumstances were different (IE – if Santana was on their team).
The reactions to this trade seem to come in three forms – excited, disappointed, and angered. You’ll never guess which bunch are excited.
The disappointed department houses some Twins fans, Phillies fans, Braves fans, Manny Acta and Felipe Lopez, 12 of the 32 Marlins fans, some Red Sox/Yankees fans, and one Royals fan (Joe Posnanski). The angered department holds the rest of the Twins fans and some very opinionated Phillies and Braves fans.
Some of those in the angered department have lost some sense of reality. I have read so many posts that point out flaw after flaw after flaw about Johan, be it his home run total of last year, his decline in W-L record (useless stat), his high ERA (yeah, 3.33 in the AL is ridiculously high, right?), his potential arm troubles, how “overrated” he is, or anything else along those lines. These fans are finding everything they can to serve the dual roles of –

• Raining on the parade of Mets fans
• Making themselves feel better about not acquiring Johan

There is no way in hell these fans would search for these flaws if their teams landed Santana. If the Twins signed Johan to an extension he would have a great year and would be applauded for staying. If the Phillies got him then it would seem very likely that a team with the NL’s best offense, the MLB’s best pitcher, and arguably the best young pitcher would perform VERY well. If the Braves were able to line him up alongside Smoltz and Hudson, something tells me that his “flaws” would be forgotten more quickly than Mark Lemke’s pitching career.
Why do we all allow ourselves to criticize someone we would shower with love if in our presence? It is jealousy? Fear? Ignorance? Probably all three.
THE MAN NAMED JOHAN
Johan is the best pitcher in baseball and makes a significant difference on any team he plays for. He did not single-handedly will the Twins to the playoffs during his tenure there but I would love to see how many of those Twins teams would have made the playoffs without his services.
To not acknowledge the difference he makes is to be an ignorant baseball fan.
To go as far as to say he is not that great, has a ton of flaws, or is overrated is to be a fan completely detached from reality. I can guarantee that every other pitcher on the teams that these fans root for has many more flaws than Johan.
There are reasons this guy has finished either #1 or in the top five in Wins, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, K, K:BB, SHO, GS, and IP over the last four years. The primary of those reasons is that he is extremely dominant and talented. In my SP Effectiveness System, where you need a +50 or higher to be considered a #1 SP, Johan has averaged a +71.3 in in the last four years. That is clearly the most from 2004-2007 and the only four-year spans since 2000 that were higher were the 2000-2003 seasons of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, both of whom are at the end of their careers now.
He has made 134 starts since 2004, and 97 of them have been AQS, which is 72 %, more than anyone else in that span.
Looking even further, if we want to use W-L records as a barometer, we are going to use my Adjusted W-L. Johan has gone a recorded 70-32 in the last four years (an average of 18-8 per season), but by my calculations, his Adjusted W-L would be 78-24 (an average of 20-6 per season).
I have no problem with people being upset that Johan now plays for the Mets. I have no problem with people not personally liking Johan Santana. I have no problem with people not personally liking the Mets (hey, I don’t like them!). I also have no problem with fans questioning the opinions of other fans.
I do, however, have a problem with no middle ground of opinion existing.
It seems that Mets fans believe they have already won the world series and, based on numerous message boards I have read, Phillies and Braves fans think Johan stinks. The Mets fans overexaggerate and the other fans have to do the polar opposite to compensate. There are very few people, relative to those who express opinions, who can be fans of other teams effected by the trade and be able to acknowledge that the Mets did something positive by gaining a great player. It’s either Johan is the messiah or Johan is overrated.
If a player, who when on your team, would increase a bulge in your pants worthy of Ron Burgundy’s thumbs-up, there is absolutely no justifiable reason to legitimately criticize said player and point out his flaws just because he is on another team. It is equivalent to really wanting a toy truck and, when you find out you can’t have it, calling that truck stupid or pretending like you don’t want it. In other words, it’s very childish.