The playoffs, The Gambler's fallacy, and The 50-50-90 rule

One of the basic rules of statistics applied to last night’s Game 7 of the ALCS last night:

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2 Responses to The playoffs, The Gambler's fallacy, and The 50-50-90 rule

  1. Xeifrank says:

    Some odds on the World Series.
    Baseball Prospectus is giving the Rockies a 56.3% chance of winning the World Series. Most of this is based on the Red Sox trouble against LHP starters and the Rockies skill of beating up RHP starters.
    Vegas odds gives the Red Sox a 64.91% chance of winning the World Series.
    For Game #1 of the World Series.
    Vegas gives the Red Sox a 66.1% chance of winning.
    Log5 gives the Red Sox a 64.91% chance of winning. Based on the Red Sox home win% vs the Rockies road win pct.
    The baseball simulator which plays 2500 simulated games, gives the Red Sox only a 52.1% chance of winning game #1.
    vr, Xei

  2. DanC says:

    Nice column, albeit a late read on my part. As an Indians fan myself, I always point people to Murphy’s Law, which states as a postulate that Cleveland fans should not cheer until all replays are finished/umpires have cleared the field/no flags are seen on the field/the next day has started/there’s been a recount…and it goes on. Look it up. I don’t make these things up.

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