The Tiger Way
January 12, 2006 7 Comments
Get real, Dave Dombrowski. $5.25 million for two years of Mike Maroth? Give me a break.
Mike Maroth, lest we forget, in 2003, became the first player in over 20 years to lose 20 games. By themselves, losses don’t tell you too much about a pitcher because they are somewhat a function of the team behind the guy on the mound. But Maroth’s losses were well-earned.
In 2003, when the Tigers lost 119 games, Maroth made 33 starts. In 193.1 innings, he gave up 231 hits and 50 walks. He surrendered 34 home runs pitching in a pitcher’s park. He managed just 4.05 K per 9 IP with a K/B ratio of 1.74. The icing on the cake though was his ERA+. He had a 5.73 ERA while the park-adjusted league average ERA was 4.30. His ERA+ was 75. His VORP was -0.3. He was worse than the guy waiting for this spot in AAA.
In 2004, he rebounded. He had an ERA+ of 104, better than league average. He improved in the strike out department while keeping his walks constant. He cut down on home runs while pitching in Comerica. Still, his numbers weren’t great. He recorded 4.48 K/9 with a 1.83 K/BB ratio.
This past year, he fell. His ERA was significantly higher than the park-adjusted league average figure. He gave up 30 home runs for the second time in three years and gave up nearly 30 more hits than innings pitched. For his career, Maroth has an ERA+ of 90 (where 100 signifies league average and anything lower is worse than average). He’s given up 96 home runs in 748 innings, and opponents have a career line of .289/.336/.456 against him. It’s like batting practice!
So the Tigers decided to reward Maroth with a few million dollars per year because, hey, we have to spend them somehow. Maroth turns 29 this year and at best, he’s a competitive team’s number 6 or 7 starter. I wouldn’t even want to see him out of the bullpen. But the Tigers think he’s worth $5.25 million over two years.
Teams in Detroit’s situation keep claiming they can’t compete against bigger market teams, but as long as they continue to waste money on worse-than-replacement-level players, they certainly won’t be maximizing their available resources.
hi benjamin!!!
seems to me that in 2003, didn’t real too many tigers field real too good and SOMEbody gotta catch the ball…
maroth sure don’t look bettern a #5 starter – except that he is healthy AND pitches over an average of 200 innings for the past 3 years. is there really a pitcher in AAA who can do at least that AND give you an ERA+ in the mid 90s?
2.7 mill isn’t so bad for a 5th guy unless you got a better one – IS there a 100 ERA+ guy they could have used for the same money or less?
lisa
Lisa: You’re probably right about that last point. It’s just bad to see a team with as little direction as the Tigers throwing money down the drain. Maybe they would be better off just using their best AAA guys and seeing if they can’t approximate Maroth’s production for the league minimum salary. Maroth’s been around for 121 big league starts over four years, and the only thing he’s shown, as you said, is the ability to avoid injury.
This is gettng redundant, but Maroth is LEFT-HANDED = if he were right-handed he would have been released. GM’s worship lefties like fanatics worship the sunrise.
Ben,
I disagree with this completely. I have Maroth projected to a 16 VORP next season. Of regular starters (pitchers who started in at least half their appearances, with a minimum of ten starts) in 2005, all of 85 had a VORP of 16 or better. Dividing by 30, that’s less than three starters per team. Maroth is a legitimate number four starter, a fifth starter for a good team. 16 runs over replacement, BTW, is worth plenty on the pitching market — $5.5-$6 million these days. The Tigers actually got a GOOD deal here.
David
In fact, here are the VORP levels you have to reach to be considered for each spot of the rotation:
#1 = 40
#2 = 30
#3 = 15
#4 = 10
#5 = 0
For #5 starters, the number is actually like -5 empirically, but I think 0 is more appropriate from a theoretical sample. If you do the math, and assume that they total about 800 innings, you’ll see that this comes out to a perfectly average pitching staff. Their combined VORP is 90, and 90/800*9 = 1.01 runs above replacement per game. VORP, of course, sets replacement level as 1 run worse than average.
So Maroth can be considered a #3 starter on an average team. This is a good deal for the Tigers, IMO.
Since it’s not letting me edit that post, let me say that I counted the #5 starter as a -5 to get that 90 VORP number. So disregard that 0.
I don’t agree that Maroth is “replacement level” He’s a mediocre pitcher but he’s a mediocre pitcher who never gets hurt and gives you a lot innings. Those types of pitchers do have some value. You can’t just bring up some replacement level pitcher from AAA and expect him to give you 200 IP and a 4.70 ERA.