Open Thread: Josh Beckett lands in Fenway after all
November 22, 2005 5 Comments
I want to try something new. Instead of my analysis of the Josh Beckett trade, I want to start an open thread on the move. I know a lot of you read this blog, and a lot of you always seem to have interesting and insightful things to say about what we write here. So let’s hear from you. Leave your comments and start some dialogue.
Here’s the trade in a nutshell: Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell go from Florida to Boston. Prospects Anibal Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez, and another pitching prospect go from Boston to Florida.
I think this trade is very ambiguous. Beckett has shown good stuff and threw 442 pitches over 95 miles per hour last year (or nearly 16 percent of all his pitches). He utterly dominated the Cubs and Yankees in 2003. But he’s had blister problems for years. An oblique muscle strain sidelined him in 2005.
For years, he has pitched in an extreme pitcher’s park in the National League. He’ll be moving to the hitter-friendly confines of the American League and will now have to face the AL’s Designated Hitters instead of the NL’s pitchers. His success in Boston is no sure thing but neither is his failure.
Lowell, long one of the league’s better hitting third baseman, had an awful year last year and, as a right-handed power hitter, stands to benefit from Fenway. He could be the steal of this deal.
Sanchez is supposedly 21 with a live arm. He’s averaged about 10 strike outs per 9 innings in the minors to go along with just 9.24 baserunners per 9 innings (or 1 an inning). He’s probably the Red Sox’s number 3 prospect. Ramirez, also 21, had a down year at AA but remains one of Boston’s top 5 prospects.
So what do you think? Is this a good deal for Boston? Will they enjoy dominance from Beckett or disappointment? Let’s hear it.
An interesting trade… could go either way. Sanchez isn’t as highly touted as some of the other Boston arms, Hansen, Del Carmen, Alvarez, Lester, Papelbon – so in that respect, they’re not losing too much, since you gotta figure they’d deal one eventually anyway. Beckett is proven talent, he _can_ pitch at the major league level, and he’s young. Can he pitch a whole season? Its unclear. From listening to talk in Boston, you’d think Hanley was some combination of the better parts of Ozzie Smith, Ted Williams, and Willie Mays…. but signing Renteria to a 4 year deal last year kind of indicates that maybe the Sox themselves don’t think all that much of him… Can Lowell still hit and Beckett start 30+ games going forward, and figure out how not to have a 4.00 ERA outside of Florida – Fenway isn’t exactly a pitchers paradise. How good is Hanley, exactly? I think that the Sox gave up, in truth, a pair of mid-high level prospects. They’ll be major leaguers, but not superstars. I think this deal hinges on how Beckett and Lowell perform. If Beckett and Schilling are healthy for a full season, the Sox might be thinking WS in 2006.
The acquisition of Lowell, in a sense, mirrors the San Diego acqusition of Vinnie Castilla – damaged goods & too late. Castilla, 38, doesn’t hit anymore and has an arthritic knee. Lowell, no spring chicken, had surgery for testicular cancer about three years ago and it is obvious that his body and his health are breaking down.
It is possible that the Marlins INSISTED that the Red Sox take Lowell as a condition to their parting with Beckett, just to dump salary. Lowell is effectively done as a force at 3B at the major league level. As a Phillies fan I am extremely disappointed we didn’t dump David Bell on the Red Sox for a bona fide prospect. Bell, as wretched as he is, figures to have a better season next year than Lowell, just by virtue of his being a better bet to get through the season. They should both have been out of baseball as of mid-season, 2005.
There can be no doubt that the Marlins insisted the Sox take Lowell. They would have been only interested in David Bell if the Phils “threw in” Chase Utley.
I think the Sox gave up a couple of good prospects. They traded a potential ace and a guy who could be a solid middle infielder in a few years. But I think they got a lot more in return than what they gave out.
Sanchez isn’t as talked about as the other young Sox arms, but I think he’s going to be better than any of the others. He has the most upside and I believe he’s the youngest.
I’ve never been a huge Hanley Ramirez fan. He’s been hyped so much here in New England over the last couple of years. After Renteria was signed Sox fans just seemed to assume that Ramirez was going to take over in center field in 2006 after Damon leaves. And most figured that he’d outproduce Damon in 2006. But I don’t really see it. Ramirez just hasn’t produced any results so far.
I’m very excited to see Beckett come to Boston. He has ace potential, but even if he doesn’t live up to it, he’s a very solid number 2 guy. He’s a guy that Boston desparately needs. And he’s young. Boston gave up a couple of young guys with potential futures for a young guy that is the future.
As far as Lowell, he is the sole reason that the deal went down. I don’t think the Marlins really wanted to get rid of Beckett, but they were desparate to unload Lowell. I’m not exactly thrilled to think about him as the regular thirdbaseman for the Sox, but it could be worse. At least we know he has a good glove and he has been a good hitter in the past. As long as he improves a little bit (say a .330 OBP instead of a .290) I think this deal will turn out fantastic for the Sox.
I have to totally disagree with the Rob’s comparison of Lowell to Castilla. Lowell is only 31, not 38 like Castilla. At his age, the odds are still pretty good that he has a few good years left in him. Despite last year’s inexplicable tailspin, his .840 OPS against lefties indicates that he still has value. Also, Lowell, who had put up a string of 25 HR/90 RBI years hitting in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the majors, gets to move to an above average hitter’s park. Castilla, on the other hand, has primarily had success hitting only in Colorado (mile-high OPS: ~.976, sea-level OPS: ~.724), and will now be playing in the place where power hitters go to die – Petco Park.